What are Predictions and My Track Record

By Brian Wang

Brian Wang has had over 90% accuracy with public predictions on public websites like Metaculus and Manifold.

OpenAI O3 model has shown that greater than human PHD reasoning is possible but with about 30,000 GPUs taking 30 minutes to infer the answer. I forecast an increase to 1 million GPU AI training from 100,000 at the end of 2024. There is continuing improvement in the efficiency and effectiveness of AI training. Advancements will improve AI beyond human experts and lower the costs for inference to less than $100 of compute instead of $10,000.

Google VLOGGER and Microsoft Vasa-1 can make convincing animations of faces and voices from a still photograph and an audio clip.

AI video and AI coding will continue to make leaps in capability that will be highly valuable.