Tesla AI has updated its FSD (full self driving) achievements. There will be huge progress towards nearing human level driving. Tesla expects to surpass human level driving in mid-2025 (6-9 months).
Solving robotaxi and full self driving is key to Tesla's future. Version 13.X should get them from 12% FSD adoption (% of people who buy a Tesla who get FSD) in the US to 25% adoption worldwide (China, Europe etc…) it will be smooth and comfortable. Everyone else is at 12.1 or v 11 or worse. Everyone other company’s self driving system is 600X worse than Version 13.
Here is how hard and time consuming it will be catch up to where Tesla is and where Tesla is going.
Tesla is transition to superhuman driving. This is insanely hard for Tesla. Tesla FSD barely works for version 3 hardware. It really needs hardware 4. Every other car maker needs version 4 hardware or better installed on many cars to replicate and they need an AI training cluster.
Going from V 12.1 to version 13 needed 2 billion miles of training data. Waymo and Apollo go and Xpeng have started to follow. They are at best at 12.1 level and most experts have said the Chinese self driving systems are at Tesla FSD version 11 level. Tesla used 500,000 cars driving an average 4000 miles using FSD in 2024 to improve the AI. If another company had 5000 cars training then they would need 400,000 miles driven. This would take 4 years of cars permanently on the road with human taxi driver. 100,000 cars driving 20,000 miles or 50,000 cars driving 40,000 miles. This means that Tesla is a minimum of 4-6 years ahead of any possible competitor to get to where Tesla will be in November. Tesla will improve 1000 times in miles driven per intervention in 2025. Catching up to Tesla's constant improvement will be impossible if Tesla licenses to car makers building over half of the cars in the world.
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