David Shapiro Was Talking AGI in September 2024 and Delayed by 1-3 Years

By Brian Wang

David Shapiro is an AI youtuber who was predicting AGI would arrive in September 2024. His expectations have massively dropped for the speed of AI progress. He has made a few videos talking about AI progress slowing down.

Shapiro was talking about massive job displacement starting in 2025 and speeding up in 2026. It appears he is now backtracking to the AI created job loss and transformation in 2027-2030. It is about a 2-4 year slowdown. Shapiro was not very precise in his AI prognostications.

Brian Wang - Nextbigfuture AI Predictions

I have predicted superintelligence by 2027 and a technical academic AGI in about 2025. Technical AGI is more of a measurement on a very broad range of tests.

I believe superintelligence is inevitable because the current AI models are undertrained by 100-1000 times per Andre Karpathy. There is still reason to believe from scaling laws for training and for inference that just a lot more hardware will enable to reach highly useful and powerful AI.

I am expecting Robotaxi and advanced FSD to deploy starting next year (2025). This will be mainly in China. There could be 1 year of delay.

I am expecting Teslabot and humandoid bot to get to thousands in the factories and warehouses in 2025 and toward or beyond a million by 2027. The ramp in 2026 is uncertain but could be 50,000 to 1 million. If Tesla has 150,000 or more Teslabots in factories this could double Tesla production which would have trillion dollar financial impact. This will get really crazy when bots make bots and we rapidly scale to billions of bots.

Real deal AGI... I expect to be later in 2025 through the end of 2026. However, 1-3 year delays are highly possible. Also, the crossing and categorization of the level of AI will be highly debatable as these things happen.