Boeing Prepares for SLS Cancellation in March
By Brian Wang
Boeing is preparing for the cancellation of the Space Launch System rocket.
Some are arguing for the cancellation after the Artemis 2 and Artemis 3 flight. However, there are months of fixes needed for the human rated Orion. The heat shield is not safe. Rushing to get off two more flights will likely cost over $20 billion. It is not just two flights but working to fix and still run the program for about four more years. Costs and delays will continue to increase trying to fix the problems. The current contracts are cost plus contracts. Boeing and the other companies would run more costs through the cost plus program.
I have been calling for the cancellation of Space Launch System for about a decade.
Now we are in a series of government wide cuts which could eliminate a trillion dollars per year of waste and perhaps another trillion of inefficiency. There is no way we get to those cuts and a balanced budget trying to carry on ineffective corporate charity and theft by Boeing.
Lets get real cost effective development of space.
Who cares about Artemis? Angry Astronaut still wants it.
Artemis II and III are upcoming NASA missions aimed at returning humans to the Moon. Here's what each mission will do:
Artemis II
Artemis II, scheduled for no earlier than April 2026, will be the first crewed mission of the Artemis program. The mission will:
- Send four astronauts on a lunar flyby using the Space Launch System (SLS) rocket and Orion spacecraft
- Test Orion's life support systems and crew interfaces in deep space
- Perform a "hybrid free return" trajectory, orbiting Earth twice before swinging around the Moon and returning directly to Earth
- Last approximately 10 days
<b>Artemis III</b>
Artemis III, targeted for mid-2027, will be the first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972. The mission will:
- Land two astronauts, including the first woman and person of color, on the Moon's south polar region
- Conduct up to four spacewalks on the lunar surface
- Perform scientific observations and sample water ice
- Use pre-positioned equipment, including an unpressurized rover for lunar excursions
- Last about 30 days, with approximately one week on the lunar surface
Both missions claim to be crucial steps in NASA's long-term goals of establishing a sustained presence on the Moon and preparing for future missions to Mars. They are not crucial steps.
Orion Heat Shield Fixes
The Orion heat shield experienced unexpected behavior during the Artemis I mission, with over 100 pits visible in post-flight imagery6. NASA needs to understand and address this issue before Artemis II, which will likely incur additional costs. However, specific cost estimates for these fixes are not provided in the search results.
The Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion production and operating costs are estimated at $4.2 billion per launch for the first four Artemis missions, not including $42 billion in formulation and development costs spent over the past years.
Boeing and the others will not get more efficient and watchful of costs. Plus they have shown incompetence and delays.
If SLS is cancelled, Boeing might try to turn that into an excuse to cancel Starliner too. They have made a big loss on Starliner and currently have no realistic path to ever making it profitable, so they need a way out. The company could argue that cancellation of SLS made it impossible for it to maintain the necessary facilities and staffing in its space division to support Starliner on its own. It could present it as a case of "force majeure", where it was unable to complete its contractual obligations to NASA for Starliner because of changes in government policy that were beyond its control. It doesn't seem likely that NASA would make too much effort to fight that claim when Starliner has been an embarrassing failure so far, and especially not if Jared Isaacman is confirmed as NASA administrator. So, the cancellation of SLS might provide more benefit than harm to Boeing.