Will Trillions in US Government Interest Costs Kill the NGAD Fighter?

In the first seven months of Fiscal Year (FY) 2024, spending on net interest has reached $514 billion, surpassing spending on both national defense ($498 billion) and Medicare ($465 billion). Overall spending has totaled $3.9 trillion thus far. Spending on interest is also more than all the money spent this year on veterans, education, and transportation combined.

The US Air Force (USAF) FY2023 budget proposal to retire from service all of the older Block 20 variants of the F-22 Raptor stealth fighter, according to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO). The F-22 Block 20 fighters, which are used for only for training and not upgraded to the same capability as the more advanced Block 30/35 platforms, were proposed by the USAF to be withdrawn from service without documenting associated costs with running the remaining aircraft harder to accommodate flight training or upgrading the older aircraft. Avoiding upgrading the training version of the F22 would save $3.3 billion or more and the upgrade program would take 15 years.

The USAF operates 32 F-22 Block 20 fighters, which lack distinct upgrades compared to the 150 Block 30/35 iterations.

The US F-22 fleet is set for a USD 22 billion upgrade over the next decade, possibly keeping the fighter in service until the 2040s. this would be for about 142 combat usable F-22s.

The US Air Force has high costs for the NGAD, fighter. It will take an estimated USD 300 million per unit. The new B-21 raider stealth bomber would need about $600 million each. There are hundreds of billions spending for F35 procurement and maintenance and Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) programs. New technologies and drones are prompting a reevaluation of air dominance strategies. The cost of procurement to buy the advanced fighters and bomber is overshadowed by maintaining and operating the aircraft and other military systems.

Interest on the debt is currently the fastest growing part of the budget, nearly doubling from $345 billion (1.6 percent of GDP) in FY 2020 to $659 billion (2.4 percent of GDP) in 2023, and net interest is on track to reach $870 billion (3.1 percent of GDP) by the end of FY 2024.

By 2051, interest will be the largest line item in the budget.